Recession or speculation?

Different criteria divide specialists about the possibility of a fall in the production of States United Edition 831Sergio Morales Chavarría Para some, the economy of United States only needs a tripping and that would be enough if you descend tropezón into a new recessionary period. On the optimistic side, that will not happen; Although limping, United States to avoid falling into the hole decrease and the negative numbers. "The fact is that there are arguments for either of the two scenarios may happen. "We should expect" is one of the most commonly used these days by those who analyzed the market. This means that they are waiting for more evidence enabling them to make a statement with more security. While both the economies of the North Atlantic be United States and the European, walk in a flimsy manner while the rest of the world observes and is waiting for what will happen in the coming months. In addition, last week joined unusual volatility in stock markets around the world. Falls estrepitosas in bags a day and recovery the following day. Tripping everything occurred later in the firm of risk rating Standard & Poor's degrade the rating of the American debt from AAA to AA +.Days earlier, on 2 August, United States Congress had approved the increase of the limit of debt in that country to the edge of time allowed. This was interpreted as a bad sign and a sign of the political inability and lack of leadership to deal with the current economic problems. Meanwhile, on the other side of the Atlantic, the old continent is also concerned about a setback caused by the problems of high indebtedness of its peripheral countries and the possible catch larger Nations. However, to calm, the European Central Bank went on the market to buy bonds of Spain and Italia Los fears of a new economic crisis also came to Costa Rica. On 9 August, the economic authorities of the Government acknowledged that the country lacks capacity to face a decrease and that the only solution is to make a fiscal reform and increase the tax burden. For the time being, indicators which leads the Central Bank of Costa Rica show a growth of production away from negative numbers However, within households, the current conditions and expectations aren't a cheerful walk .In a poll of last July, found that 76% of Costa Ricans considered that they are still in crisis and the consumer confidence index in July confirmed that consumers have increased this year distrust the 2010.Criterios divided between specialists consulted by EF divided criteria exist because some are easily sufficient reasons that countries go for face to face in the recession. Others are difficult to relapse and rather see signs of more economic strength in comparison with the period prior to the crisis of the 2008.Para Mark Weisbrot, Co-Director of the Center for research in politics and Economics in Washington, capital American, the actions of the Federal Reserve and the absence of symptoms similar to previous crises, such as the housing bubble away the idea of the economic recession .The criterion of Weisbrot is different for Europe, region that considered closer to fall into trouble because they did not follow policies to stimulate economic growth. Boris Segura, strategist for Latin America of the firm Nomura Securities, is another that they supported the idea that it will avoid a fall in production in United States recognizes that the rates of progress are anemic and unemployment levels are high, says that EE.UU. It maintains an important excess productive capacity that can support the growth, even though this is weak. Secure explained that, in addition, for this second half not will present conditions were in the first part of the year and that in one way or another affected the performance of the Americans. Among them, for example, a severe winter, a strong impact of thunderstorms with tornadoes in several cities and the coup of the earthquake in Japan industrial supply chains. Figures who have so far included the same gross domestic product (GDP), the results of corporate profits and the indicators of domestic demand are evidence to know that not will be recession, said Douglas Montero, Manager of international business of opposite Values. Al market, the Costa Rican Economist Ennio Rodríguez, who is an adviser for a multilateral agency one is of those who considered Yes we head to a fall. Aspects how cuts in the stimulus and highly indebted consumers are part of the trip that will take to the floor